2024 archive · Rules
How scoring worked
For each of the 56 electoral contests, players picked two things: which party would win it, and by how much. The margin went into one of four bands: under 1%, 1–5%, 5–10%, or 10% and over.
Points were a share of that contest’s electoral votes, scaled by how far the margin call landed from the real one. You still scored if you got the winner right and the margin wrong. Getting the winner wrong cost you an extra band on top.
The scale
Share of the contest’s electoral votes
| Margin call | Points | Example |
|---|---|---|
| Exactly right | 100% | Picked Dem 5–10%; it was Dem 5–10% |
| Off by one band | 75% | Picked Dem 5–10%; it was Dem 1–5% |
| Off by two bands | 50% | Picked Dem 5–10%; it was Dem under 1% |
| Off by three bands | 25% | Picked Dem 1–5%; it was Rep under 1% |
| Off by four or more | 0 | Picked Dem 10%+; it was Rep 1–5% |
Wrong party, extra penalty. Calling the wrong winner counted as one further band out. Picking Dem under 1% for a contest that went Rep under 1% scored as two bands off, not one. A confident wrong call cost more than a cautious one.
Worked example
Michigan · 15 electoral votes
Michigan went to Trump by a margin in the 1–5% band. It was the contest players called worst: 22.0% got the winner right. Here’s what four different calls on it were worth.
| The call | Distance | Points of 15 |
|---|---|---|
| Rep 1–5% | Exactly right | 15.00 |
| Rep 5–10% | One band out | 11.25 |
| Dem under 1% | Wrong party, three bands out | 3.75 |
| Dem 10%+ | Wrong party, four or more bands out | 0.00 |
Across all 56 contests the best entry scored 526.25 of a possible 538, and the median was 424.8.