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Presidential Pick’em

2024 archive · Full breakdown

Every contest, scored

4,001 maps, 56 contests each. This is the whole board: how often players called each one correctly, and where the consensus landed against the certified result.

4,002
Scored entries
424.8
Median score
526.25
Best score
109
Perfect maps

All 56 contests

Most to least accurate

Contest EV Called correctly For Harris For Trump Won by Consensus
California 54 97.3% 3,865 108 Harris by 10+ Harris by 10+
Kentucky 8 96.9% 121 3,829 Trump by 10+ Trump by 10+
Alabama 9 96.7% 129 3,826 Trump by 10+ Trump by 10+
Oklahoma 7 96.3% 145 3,815 Trump by 10+ Trump by 10+
Arkansas 6 96.2% 152 3,810 Trump by 10+ Trump by 10+
Tennessee 11 96.1% 154 3,797 Trump by 10+ Trump by 10+
Mississippi 6 95.9% 161 3,789 Trump by 10+ Trump by 10+
North Dakota 3 95.9% 162 3,787 Trump by 10+ Trump by 10+
South Dakota 3 95.9% 163 3,788 Trump by 10+ Trump by 10+
Kansas 6 95.8% 168 3,788 Trump by 10+ Trump by 10+
Washington 12 95.8% 3,792 166 Harris by 10+ Harris by 10+
Texas 40 95.7% 171 3,803 Trump by 10+ Trump by 5–10
Wyoming 3 95.7% 169 3,790 Trump by 10+ Trump by 10+
Missouri 10 95.6% 176 3,781 Trump by 10+ Trump by 10+
Louisiana 8 95.4% 180 3,774 Trump by 10+ Trump by 10+
Nebraska 2 95.4% 183 3,769 Trump by 10+ Trump by 10+
Montana 4 95.3% 187 3,771 Trump by 10+ Trump by 10+
Oregon 8 95.2% 3,764 190 Harris by 10+ Harris by 10+
South Carolina 9 94.9% 201 3,744 Trump by 10+ Trump by 10+
Florida 30 94.8% 206 3,759 Trump by 10+ Trump by 5–10
New York 28 94.8% 3,749 205 Harris by 10+ Harris by 10+
Idaho 4 94.4% 222 3,733 Trump by 10+ Trump by 10+
West Virginia 4 94.1% 233 3,713 Trump by 10+ Trump by 10+
Utah 6 93.9% 243 3,716 Trump by 10+ Trump by 10+
Hawaii 4 93.8% 3,656 240 Harris by 10+ Harris by 10+
Indiana 11 93.8% 245 3,704 Trump by 10+ Trump by 10+
Alaska 3 93.5% 253 3,663 Trump by 10+ Trump by 10+
Connecticut 7 93.4% 3,694 261 Harris by 10+ Harris by 10+
Massachusetts 11 93.3% 3,689 264 Harris by 10+ Harris by 10+
Vermont 3 93.3% 3,678 264 Harris by 10+ Harris by 10+
Maryland 10 92.7% 3,662 289 Harris by 10+ Harris by 10+
Ohio 17 92.7% 288 3,665 Trump by 10+ Trump by 5–10
Rhode Island 4 92.5% 3,629 296 Harris by 10+ Harris by 10+
New Jersey 14 92.3% 3,647 303 Harris by 5–10 Harris by 10+
Colorado 10 92.1% 3,656 312 Harris by 10+ Harris by 10+
Delaware 3 91.9% 3,617 317 Harris by 10+ Harris by 10+
New Hampshire 4 91.1% 3,586 352 Harris by 1–5 Harris by 5–10
District of Columbia 3 91.0% 3,478 345 Harris by 10+ Harris by 10+
Minnesota 10 90.7% 3,583 368 Harris by 1–5 Harris by 5–10
Illinois 19 90.6% 3,582 373 Harris by 5–10 Harris by 10+
Maine 2 90.4% 3,563 380 Harris by 5–10 Harris by 5–10
New Mexico 5 89.5% 3,540 417 Harris by 5–10 Harris by 5–10
Virginia 13 88.8% 3,504 443 Harris by 5–10 Harris by 5–10
NE-3 1 86.0% 518 3,192 Trump by 10+ Trump by 10+
Iowa 6 85.0% 593 3,360 Trump by 10+ Trump by 5–10
NE-1 1 82.7% 641 3,073 Trump by 10+ Trump by 10+
ME-1 1 78.8% 2,930 788 Harris by 10+ Harris by 10+
ME-2 1 76.5% 871 2,842 Trump by 5–10 Trump by 5–10
NE-2 1 73.4% 2,724 985 Harris by 1–5 Harris by 1–5
Arizona 11 71.7% 1,115 2,829 Trump by 5–10 Trump by <1
North Carolina 16 68.9% 1,221 2,703 Trump by 1–5 Trump by <1
Georgia 16 68.5% 1,242 2,702 Trump by 1–5 Trump by <1
Nevada 6 42.7% 2,254 1,679 Trump by 1–5 Harris by <1
Pennsylvania 19 39.2% 2,386 1,541 Trump by 1–5 Harris by <1
Wisconsin 10 29.8% 2,755 1,171 Trump by <1 Harris by <1
Michigan 15 22.0% 3,066 863 Trump by 1–5 Harris by <1

Score distribution

4,002 entries · 20-point buckets

Mean 393.9, median 424.8. The mean sits below the median because a small tail of very low scores drags it down. Most entries clustered near the top, since the safe seats were easy points.

0 pts 540 pts Median 424.8

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